1. The series in this figure shows the annual rate of change of the CPI-deflated U.S. stock market index, expressed as a 10-year trailing average. These transformations mean that every annual observation in the series measures the average annual rate of change of the CPI-deflated index over the past 10 years.
2. The chart also marks one and two standard deviations above and below the historical mean of the series.
3. The current level of the series is more than two standard deviations above its historical mean.
4. If I were a betting man, I’d say that the U.S. is about to enter a major capitalist crisis sometime during the next decade.