Have you considered undertaking a similar analysis of other economic data where a consensus number is tracked, like GDP, PMI, or something like that (if such historical data are available) ? See this economic calendar from NASDAQ, which shows several “consensus” numbers, some side-by-side with the actual numbers announced (especially for days before today, which is still being filled in).
I am just wondering how much of what we are seeing is the hype “signal” versus the macro “noise,” and, if the two are related, how much macro expectations influence earnings expectations.